Bitcoin Death Cross Analysis | IS the Crypto Bull Run OVER? Explore the 2025 Bitcoin Death Cross, weekly rejections, market sentiment, liquidation pressure, and a hedged trading strategy explained in the DeFi Space voice.

Introduction — Kids, Friends & The Moment the Chart Changed Everything

Some market stories begin with intense chart sessions, endless coffee refills, and the glow of red candles burning your retina. But not this one.

This one begins with kids running around the backyard, friends laughing on the porch, and me finally taking a break from watching Bitcoin wiggle between $94K and $98K like it had nothing better to do.

We were planning a simple day — Troll Hunting with the kids. You know, normal people things. This is what I mean by touching grass.

But BTC had just printed a full Death Cross.The 50-day MA sliced under the 200-day MA like a kid wiping out on their scooter.

Fun family day… or time to retreat to my phone tio overtrade. just kidding.

Just like that, we had the biggest question of the quarter staring me in the face:

👉 Bitcoin Death Cross Analysis | IS the Crypto Bull Run OVER?

Typically, at the conclusion of a bull run, BTC falls below the 50-Week SMA on the weekly chart. Once there is a second consecutive weekly close below this level, the bull market is certainly over. What implications does this recent Death Cross have for BITCOIN and Ethereum?

Let's analyze it.

Understanding the Bitcoin Death Cross

The 50-Day vs. 200-Day MA — What the Cross Means

A Death Cross happens when:

• The 50-day moving average (short-term trend)crosses below

• The 200-day moving average (long-term trend)

This usually signals weakening momentum — like the market slouching in its chair after a long rally.

Historical Death Cross Outcomes & Market Reactions

Here’s the truth the headlines don’t tell you:

Death Crosses are not automatic doom.They’re contextual, and historically they’ve done everything from triggering 50% drops to acting as complete fakeouts.

Examples:

• 2014: Bear market continuation

• 2018: Brutal drawdown

• 2020: Fakeout before explosive rally

• 2022: Multi-month bleed

DEATH CROSS DURING A BULL RUN tend to lead to expliosive rallies after a downturn. This is a lagging indicator with a crappy name.

Conclusion:A Death Cross is meaningful — but not destiny.

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Why the 2025 Death Cross Is Different

Because the macro structure is conflicted:

• We're still near all-time highs

• Liquidity pockets are massive

• Shorts are overcrowded

• Weekly rejection levels are stacking up

This isn’t a typical bear market Death Cross.It’s an inflection point.

Macro Structure Breakdown — Weekly & Monthly Chart Signals

Weekly Rejection at $110K: The Turning Point

Bitcoin tried twice to reclaim the $110K zone — and failed.

Repeated rejections at major weekly resistance levels are like kids constantly bouncing off a locked door: eventually, they get tired.

Bull Market Support Band Breakdown

The BMSB (around $95,392) has acted like a ceiling instead of a floor lately.

Not ideal.

Why the $98K Weekly Close Matters

Two consecutive weekly closes below $98K would confirm a macro breakdown — something Bitcoin hasn’t done since late 2022, and we are about to have one.

Current Bitcoin Positions (Short + Hedge Long)

The 25x Short Position — Setup, Entry & Thesis

• Entry: $96,099.2

• PnL: +21.90%

• Leverage: 25x

• Stop: $96,900

Thesis:

• Rejected at 50W MA

• Macro momentum flipping

• Death Cross confirmation

• Weakness under $110K

This is the conviction position.

The Hedge Long — Protecting Upside Risk

• Entry: $95,009.4

• PnL: +6.54%

• Stop: $94,900

This trade exists because:

• Liquidity under price is heavy

• Too many traders are short

• A short squeeze would be violent

• Upside shocks are real, especially on weekends

Running Both Trades: The DAD DeFi Space Method

This balanced approach allows:

• Downside conviction

• Upside insurance

• Stress-free positioning

• And more time to actually enjoy life

It’s not about being right — it’s about being protected.

Support & Resistance Levels Traders Must Watch

The Crucial Support Zone: $94K–$92K

Break this range and Bitcoin likely freefalls to:

• $88K

• $84K

This area is the floor holding the cycle together.

The Rejection Ceiling: $96.5K–$100K

Every bounce has met resistance here.For bulls to regain control, they must:

• Reclaim $98K

• Then flip $100K back into support

No shortcuts.

Sentiment, Liquidity & Leverage Landscape

Why Everyone Is Leaning Short (And Why That’s Risky)

When too many traders pile on one side of the boat, it usually tips… in the opposite direction.

Short interest is stacked.

Funding Rates & Leverage Signals

Funding is cooling — but still short-favored.That means a counter-trend move remains on the table.

Liquidation Clusters Below $94K

Billions in liquidity rest just below current price.

If price nukes?We’ll see a massive flush.

If price squeezes?Shorts will panic-buy the candle.

Bitcoin Death Cross Analysis | IS the Crypto Bull Run

OVER?

The Bear Case: Breakdown Ahead

• Death Cross just triggered

• Weekly resistance overwhelming

• Bearish rejections at $110K

• Macro structure softening

• BMSB lost

This could be the beginning of a deeper correction.

The Bull Case: Squeeze & Recovery

• RSI near oversold

• Too many shorts

• Liquidity imbalance

• Higher timeframe structure still intact

• A relief rally is overdue

This could be a cycle reset, not a cycle collapse.

DeFi Space Strategy Update

How I'm Navigating a Potential Cycle Pivot

I’m staying:

• Nimble

• Hedged

• Unbiased

• And focused on technicals

Let the chart talk, not the crowd. But in the past we rally out of a Death Cross

Rules for High-Leverage Traders

• Use stops

• Never double down emotionally

• Hedge when unsure

• Protect capital first

Market survives longer than your conviction.

FAQs

1. Does the Bitcoin Death Cross always mean a bear market?No. About half of them reverse into bullish continuation.

2. Is the 2025 bull run actually over?Too early to say — the weekly close matters more than the Death Cross.

3. What’s the most important level right now?$98K weekly close.

4. Why hedge with a long and short at the same time?To capture volatility while limiting surprise moves.

5. What happens if $94K breaks?Possible cascade into the $88K–$84K levels.

6. Could this still be a fakeout Death Cross?Yes — especially given the short positioning imbalance.

Conclusion — The Chart Doesn’t Lie, But It Likes to Surprise

Bitcoin is at a massive turning point.Between the Death Cross, weekly rejection, liquidity traps, and crowded short positions, the market is setting up for a binary breakout.

The bull run isn’t confirmed dead.And it’s not confirmed alive either.

Right now?It’s in the same state as a kid deciding whether to jump into the pool — hesitating on the edge, wobbling, calculating, waiting for the perfect moment.

The best move?

Stay nimble.Stay hedged.Stay disciplined.And let the chart lead.