Bitcoin Hits $81K: Bearish RSI Divergence, Key BTC Levels and Why I’m Farming BTC/ETH Instead of Chasing
- Kevin- DADS DeFi Space
- 1 day ago
- 9 min read
Bitcoin has exploded toward $81,000, Ethereum has broken higher, and the crypto market suddenly looks a lot stronger than it did just a short time ago.
That matters.
I’m not going to ignore bullish price action simply because I was cautious before the move. When the market gives me new information, I have to respect it.
But after an almost straight-line move higher, I’m also not interested in emotionally chasing Bitcoin because the candles suddenly turned green.
There is another piece of the chart that has my attention:
Bitcoin is pushing higher while RSI is beginning to show bearish divergence.
That doesn’t automatically mean Bitcoin is about to crash. It doesn’t erase the breakout, either.
It simply tells me that while price has strengthened, momentum may not be confirming the move as cleanly as I would like.
And that creates a much more interesting question than trying to predict Bitcoin’s next $2,000 move:
How do I participate in this market without feeling like I need to chase every candle?
For me, part of the answer right now is continuing to explore correlated Bitcoin and Ethereum liquidity farming, including my own WETH/cbBTC position on MAXFi.
Let’s break down why.
Bitcoin’s Move Toward $81K–$82K Deserves Respect
The first thing I want to make clear is that this rally matters.
Bitcoin reclaimed important levels and pushed aggressively toward the $81,000–$82,000 area.
That is bullish information.
One of the biggest mistakes investors can make is becoming so attached to a bearish or bullish thesis that they refuse to acknowledge when the market changes.
I try to approach markets differently.
My opinion should change when the evidence changes.
Bitcoin moving higher does not mean every risk has disappeared, but the market has clearly provided more bullish information.
At the same time, the speed of the move matters.
When price moves almost vertically, I become increasingly reluctant to chase it.
There is a big difference between saying:
“Bitcoin looks stronger.”
and saying:
“Bitcoin looks stronger, therefore I need to buy immediately at any price.”
Those are not the same decision.
What Is Bearish RSI Divergence?
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is a momentum indicator that helps measure the strength of recent price movements.
One thing traders watch for is a divergence between price and momentum.
A bearish RSI divergence can develop when:
Price makes a higher high.
RSI fails to make a corresponding higher high.
Momentum therefore appears weaker relative to the new price high.
That is roughly what I’m watching now.
Bitcoin has continued pushing higher, but momentum is giving me a reason to remain disciplined.
Does Bearish RSI Divergence Mean Bitcoin Will Fall?
No.
This distinction is important.
Bearish divergence is a warning, not a prediction.
Strong markets can remain overbought for longer than people expect. Divergences can persist while price continues climbing.
That is why I would never short Bitcoin or completely exit the market simply because one indicator develops a divergence.
Instead, I treat it as another piece of evidence.
Price is telling me:
Respect the breakout.
Momentum is telling me:
Don’t get careless.
Both can be true at the same time.
The Bitcoin Levels I’m Watching Next
Rather than trying to predict exactly where Bitcoin goes next, I prefer to identify areas that could become important if the market pulls back.
$81K–$82K: The Immediate BTC Test
Bitcoin is now testing the area around $81,000–$82,000.
A convincing move through this region followed by sustained strength would provide additional bullish information.
But after such an aggressive rally, I’m also watching how Bitcoin behaves if momentum begins to cool.
Around $74K: First Major Support Area I’m Watching
If Bitcoin does pull back, approximately $74,000 is one area I’m watching for potential support.
A pullback does not automatically destroy a bullish structure.
Markets rarely move in perfectly straight lines forever.
Sometimes the healthier outcome after an explosive rally is consolidation or a controlled retracement that allows momentum to reset.
Around $69K: Bull Market Support Band
Below that, I’m watching the bull market support band near roughly $69,000.
That would represent a much deeper retracement, but it is an area I want on my chart before volatility arrives—not after.
This is part of how I try to manage markets.
I don’t need to know exactly what Bitcoin will do.
I want to know what I will do under several different scenarios.
That is a much more useful framework.
Ethereum’s Breakout Matters Too
Bitcoin isn’t the only chart that has improved.
Ethereum has also exploded higher.
That matters because I have been watching Ethereum’s relative strength as an important piece of the broader crypto-market structure.
A healthier crypto expansion eventually needs participation beyond Bitcoin.
Ethereum showing strength provides another piece of bullish evidence.
But Ethereum also deserves the same caution I’m applying to Bitcoin.
After an aggressive move, momentum can become stretched.
So once again, I’m trying to avoid turning:
“The chart improved.”
into:
“I have to chase it right now.”
There will always be another candle.
Capital is harder to replace.
Why ETH/BTC May Be One of the Most Important Charts Right Now
One chart I continue to watch closely is ETH/BTC.
ETH/BTC measures Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin.
If ETH/BTC strengthens, Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin.
If ETH/BTC weakens, Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum.
Why does that matter?
Because Ethereum leadership can tell us something about how risk is moving through the
broader crypto market.
Bitcoin can rally largely on its own.
But if Ethereum begins gaining sustained strength relative to Bitcoin, I become more interested in whether capital is broadening into other parts of crypto.
That is why I don’t look at BTC/USD or ETH/USD in isolation.
Relative strength matters.
The market is an ecosystem.
A Strong Rally Does Not Require Me to Chase
This is probably the most important lesson from the current move.
You can respect a rally without chasing it.
Those two ideas are not contradictory.
I would rather acknowledge that the market has become stronger and patiently look for my opportunities than emotionally buy because I’m afraid Bitcoin will never pull back again.
I’ve been through enough crypto volatility to know how quickly that emotion can take over.
A giant green candle appears.
Social media becomes bullish.
Everyone starts talking about the next target.
Suddenly the price that nobody wanted a week earlier feels cheap.
That is exactly when process becomes important.
My goal isn’t to catch every dollar of upside.
My goal is to remain positioned so I can continue participating over the long run.
Process over prediction.
Why I’m Increasingly Interested in Correlated BTC/ETH Liquidity Farming
This brings me to the DeFi side of the discussion.
Instead of asking only:
“Should I buy Bitcoin at $81K?”
I’m asking another question:
“Can I put assets I already want to own to work while the market decides what happens next?”
That is where correlated liquidity pairs become interesting to me.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are obviously not identical assets.
They can outperform one another significantly over different periods.
But they also share substantial exposure to the broader crypto market.
That creates an interesting environment for liquidity provision.
How a BTC/ETH Liquidity Pair Can Generate Fees
A liquidity provider supplies assets to a pool that traders use to swap between those assets.
Those trades generate fees.
With a BTC/ETH-oriented pair, relative movement between Bitcoin and Ethereum can create trading activity as market participants move between the two assets.
That means I can potentially:
Maintain exposure to assets I’m comfortable owning.
Provide liquidity between them.
Earn trading fees when the pool is active.
That is much more interesting to me than selecting a liquidity pool simply because it displays the highest APR.
My framework is increasingly:
Pair first. APR second.
I want to understand the assets before I care about the advertised yield.
My WETH/cbBTC MAXFi Position
I’m currently using a WETH/cbBTC position through MAXFi as part of this experiment.
The appeal is straightforward.
I’m comfortable having exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Rather than pairing one of those assets against a random token I wouldn’t otherwise want to own, I can explore a position built around two major crypto assets.
Then I can evaluate several things over time:
Fees generated
Position appreciation or depreciation
Rebalances
Relative BTC/ETH movement
Range behavior
Overall performance versus simply holding the assets
That last point is particularly important.
APR Alone Does Not Tell Me Whether the Strategy Worked
A liquidity position can generate fees and still be a poor allocation.
That sounds contradictory until you think about what the position is actually supposed to accomplish.
If I earn substantial fees but dramatically underperform simply holding the underlying assets, I need to understand why.
If rebalancing, range selection or relative price movement changes my exposure significantly, that matters.
If fees compensate me adequately for those risks, that matters too.
This is why I want to evaluate the complete position, not just screenshot an APR.
Correlated Does Not Mean Risk-Free
This is where I want to be especially clear.
Calling BTC and ETH a correlated pair does not make liquidity farming safe.
Concentrated liquidity introduces additional risks beyond simply holding Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Impermanent Loss and Divergence Risk
If one asset significantly outperforms the other, the composition of the liquidity position can change.
You may end up holding more of the weaker-performing asset and less of the stronger-performing asset than you would have if you simply held both.
Trading fees can help compensate for that divergence.
They are not guaranteed to overcome it.
Range Risk
Concentrated liquidity positions operate within defined price ranges.
If the relative price moves outside that range, the position can stop actively earning fees until it is repositioned or the market returns.
A narrow range may improve capital efficiency while price remains inside it, but it can also increase the chance of leaving the active range.
Smart-Contract and Protocol Risk
Using DeFi introduces smart-contract and protocol risk that does not exist when simply holding assets in self-custody.
That risk needs to be part of the expected-return calculation.
Market Risk
Bitcoin and Ethereum can both decline.
Pairing two correlated assets does not eliminate exposure to the broader crypto market.
If BTC and ETH fall together, the dollar value of the position can still fall substantially.
That sounds obvious, but it is worth repeating whenever yield becomes the center of the conversation.
Yield does not remove market risk.
Why This Strategy Fits My Current Market Thinking
The reason this approach interests me right now has less to do with predicting Bitcoin’s next move and more to do with building a process around uncertainty.
Bitcoin could break $82,000 and continue higher.
It could consolidate.
It could pull back toward $74,000.
A larger correction could eventually bring deeper support into play.
I don’t know.
And I don’t need to pretend that I do.
Instead, I can build strategies around the assets I actually want exposure to, determine the risks I’m willing to accept, and evaluate whether the fees justify the additional complexity.
That is a much healthier question for me than:
“Where will Bitcoin be tomorrow?”
What Would Change My View?
I’m continuing to watch several things.
First, I want to see whether Bitcoin can sustain its breakout rather than simply spike higher.
Second, I’m watching the bearish RSI divergence. If momentum strengthens and confirms price, that warning becomes less important. If momentum continues weakening while price struggles, I become more cautious.
Third, I’m watching Ethereum and especially ETH/BTC.
If Ethereum begins demonstrating sustained relative strength, that could tell us something important about broader market participation.
Finally, I’m watching my actual liquidity positions.
Not just APR.
Fees. Rebalances. Asset composition. Range behavior. Net performance.
The experiment needs to justify itself with results.
The Bigger Lesson: Build a Process That Survives Either Outcome
Bitcoin at $81,000 naturally creates excitement.
But excitement is not a strategy.
The market has become more bullish.
I respect that.
Momentum is also showing a warning.
I respect that too.
Those ideas can coexist.
I don’t need to decide that Bitcoin is definitely going to $100,000 or definitely pulling back to $69,000.
I need a process for both possibilities.
That means maintaining exposure to assets I want to own, protecting capital, avoiding emotional entries, and looking for ways to make my portfolio productive without pretending yield is free money.
For me, correlated Bitcoin and Ethereum liquidity farming is becoming one piece of that process.
Not because it eliminates risk.
It doesn’t.
But because it gives me another way to think about owning and using assets while the market figures out what comes next.
I’m not trying to predict every candle.
I’m trying to build a portfolio that doesn’t require me to.
Watch the Full Bitcoin, Ethereum & MAXFi Breakdown
I walk through the Bitcoin and Ethereum charts, the RSI divergence, ETH/BTC, the levels I’m watching, and my actual WETH/cbBTC MAXFi position in the accompanying video.
If you prefer seeing the charts and position while I explain the reasoning, watch the full breakdown on DADS DeFi Space YouTube.
Follow My Market Thinking Between Videos
If you want to follow how this thesis develops rather than only seeing the finished articles and videos, join the free DADS DeFi Space Telegram community:
That is where I share more frequent market observations, DeFi positions and what I’m watching as conditions change.
Explore MAXFi
I actively use MAXFi and have a relationship with the project. I’m documenting my own positions because I think showing the actual process—including the risks and results—is more useful than simply talking about yield in theory.
If you decide MAXFi is something you want to research yourself:
This is a referral link. If you use it, it helps support DADS DeFi Space at no additional cost to you.
Free Crypto & DeFi Education
If you’re still learning DeFi, liquidity pools, wallets or risk management, I’ve also built free educational resources at:
DADS DeFi Space:https://www.dadsdefispace.org
Free Crypto & DeFi Course:https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges
The goal is to help you understand the mechanics and risks before putting capital into a strategy.
Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets, DeFi protocols and concentrated liquidity positions involve substantial risk, including possible loss of capital. APRs and yields can change rapidly. Liquidity providers face market, smart-contract, range, liquidity and impermanent-loss risks.
I personally use MAXFi and may hold positions in assets or protocols discussed in this article. The MAXFi link above is a referral link that helps support DADS DeFi Space at no additional cost to you.
Always do your own research, understand the strategy you are using, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
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