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Bitcoin Is Bouncing Again — But I’m Not Ready to Call the Bear Market Over


Bitcoin is bouncing again.

And I know exactly what happens every time we get one of these moves.

A few green candles show up, Bitcoin starts reclaiming levels people were worried about a few days ago, and suddenly the conversation shifts from “How low are we going?” to “Was that the bottom?”



I get it.


After spending this much time grinding through a bear market, everybody wants the answer to be yes.


I do too.


But I’m not there yet.

Bitcoin recently pushed down into the low-$62,000 region before buyers stepped back in and pushed price above $65,000. That rebound matters. I'm watching it closely.

But a bounce and a confirmed change in the larger market structure are two very different things. AND this morening Trump spoke about the supporive measures America is takingto support the crypto industry.



That distinction is important because I'm not trying to predict the exact candle that ends this bear market.


I'm trying to prepare for what comes after it without getting wrecked if we still have another leg lower first.


That has become a much bigger part of how I approach crypto after years of trading, investing, making mistakes, taking losses, surviving multiple cycles, and spending more time in DeFi.


Process over prediction.

I don't need to perfectly call the bottom.

I need a plan if Bitcoin goes higher, a plan if Bitcoin goes lower, and enough capital left to participate when the bigger opportunity finally arrives.


The Bitcoin Bounce Matters — But Confirmation Matters More

One mistake I made earlier in my investing journey was putting too much weight on individual moves.

Bitcoin pumps.

Bullish.

Bitcoin dumps.

Bearish.

Bitcoin pumps again.

Bullish again.


That can become exhausting—and expensive—if you're constantly changing your entire portfolio based on a few candles.

These days, I'm much more interested in market structure.

The current rebound from the low-$62K region is encouraging, but I'm still looking for Bitcoin to reclaim more important structural levels before I become convinced the larger bear-market trend has changed.


One area I'm paying particularly close attention to is the weekly structure and the major moving averages above price.


A move toward the upper-$60Ks would absolutely make things more interesting.

But getting there isn't enough by itself.


I want to see Bitcoin reclaim important resistance and prove it can hold it.

That's a very different mindset from seeing a green candle and immediately deciding the next bull market has started.


Why I Still Think We Could See Lower Prices

I could be wrong.

That's always part of this.

Maybe the low-$62K area turns out to be the important low and Bitcoin continues grinding higher from here.


Great.


I'm still exposed to crypto.

But I also don't think the market has done enough yet for me to completely dismiss the downside.


The market has looked exhausted. We've already lost important support during this broader decline, leverage has been flushed out of parts of the market, and the larger structure still hasn't given me the confirmation I want.


That means I'm treating this as a risk-management environment, not a victory lap.

I'm keeping downside scenarios on the table.

I'm also watching Ethereum, the broader altcoin market, Bitcoin dominance, ETH/BTC, liquidity, momentum indicators, and the way the market reacts around major resistance.

No single indicator decides the thesis.


I'm looking for the pieces to start agreeing with each other.

That's one of the biggest lessons I've learned over the years:

Don't make the market prove your thesis right. Make the market earn your confidence.


I'm Not Sitting Completely on the Sidelines Either

This is where things get more interesting.

Being cautious doesn't mean I'm doing nothing.

I'm actually becoming increasingly interested in positioning for the next phase of the market.

There is a huge difference between saying:

“The bottom is definitely in.”

and saying:

“We're getting deep enough into the cycle that I want to start preparing.”

I'm much closer to the second one.

If we get another meaningful flush lower, I want to be in a position where I'm thinking about opportunity rather than panicking.

That means protecting capital now.


It means researching.

It means continuing to build positions selectively.

It means thinking about where I want my portfolio positioned when the next sustained expansion actually arrives.

And it means accepting that I probably won't buy the exact bottom.

I'm perfectly fine with that.


How DeFi Changes the Way I'm Approaching This Market

DeFi has also changed how I think about bear markets.

I'm not simply sitting around waiting for Bitcoin to go up anymore.

I'm increasingly using liquidity positions and other DeFi strategies as part of the portfolio.

One area I continue to like is correlated liquidity pairs, particularly when the assets fit what I'm already trying to accumulate.

Instead of viewing every position purely as:

“Did this token go up?”

I can ask a different question:

“Is this position helping me accumulate more of the assets I actually want to own?”

For me, that increasingly means Bitcoin and Ethereum.

That doesn't eliminate risk.


Liquidity providing introduces its own risks, including impermanent loss, range management, smart-contract exposure, changing fee generation, and the possibility that simply holding the underlying assets performs better.

But it gives me another tool.


And that's really how I view DeFi.

It's a tool—not a lottery ticket.

The objective isn't to find the craziest APR on the screen.

The objective is to build a strategy where the assets, yield, risk, range, and portfolio goal actually make sense together.


I'm Also Using Hedges

At the same time, I've been willing to move more defensive when the chart tells me to.

That includes using short positions and hedges when I think the downside risk justifies them.

The important word there is hedge.


I'm not trying to turn every market move into a leveraged bet.

Sometimes a short position has a very specific job: reduce some of the directional exposure elsewhere in the portfolio.


That can be particularly useful when I'm running liquidity positions that still have exposure to crypto assets.


This is also why understanding leverage before using it matters so much.

Leverage can be useful.


It can also destroy an account incredibly quickly when someone doesn't understand liquidation, position sizing, isolated versus cross margin, or basic risk management.

For active trading, futures, and perpetuals, two of the exchanges I use are:


Those are affiliate links that help support DADS DeFi Space at no additional cost to you.

But don't interpret an affiliate link as me telling you that you need to trade leverage.

You don't.

If you're still learning basic risk management, spot markets and education should come first.


The Bigger Opportunity May Be What Comes After This

This is the part of the cycle I'm becoming increasingly interested in.

Not because I know where the exact bottom is.


I don't.


I'm interested because eventually bear markets create the conditions for the next accumulation period.


The people who benefit most from that aren't necessarily the ones who perfectly predict the bottom.



They're often the people who stayed engaged long enough to recognize when conditions began improving.

That's what I'm trying to do.

Stay involved.

Keep learning.

Protect capital.

Experiment carefully.

Accumulate selectively.

And prepare.



Because if we do get another meaningful move lower, I don't want fear making my decisions for me.



I want to have already thought through what I'm going to do.


Learn the Process Before Chasing the Opportunity

If you're newer to crypto or DeFi, this quieter part of the market is actually a great time to learn.


It's much easier to understand wallets, exchanges, liquidity pools, risk management, and market structure when everything isn't going vertical and social media isn't screaming at you to buy something every five minutes.

That's one reason I've been rebuilding and expanding the free DADS DeFi Space course.


Start there if you're still building your foundation.

The goal isn't to tell you what to buy.

It's to help you understand the tools well enough to make better decisions yourself.


Follow My Thinking Between Articles

I also don't want these articles to pretend that my market thesis never changes.

It does.

Markets change.

New information comes in.

Levels break.

Levels get reclaimed.

Positions change.



That's why I share shorter updates inside the free Telegram community between these longer articles and videos.


📢 Join the Free DADS DeFi Space Telegram:https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace

That's where I share more of the day-to-day market observations, DeFi experiments, portfolio thoughts, and what I'm watching as conditions develop.


Final Thoughts: I Don't Need to Call the Bottom

I've been through enough of these market cycles to know how tempting it is to want one clean answer.


Is the bear market over?

Maybe we're getting close.

Maybe Bitcoin has already printed the important low.

Or maybe we still have one more ugly move that shakes out the people who spent months waiting for the bear market to end.

I don't know.


And I'm becoming increasingly comfortable saying that.

Because my job isn't to predict every candle.

My job is to manage my portfolio through whatever comes next.

Right now, that means I'm still cautious.

I'm still willing to hedge.

I'm still watching for stronger confirmation from Bitcoin and the broader market.




But I'm also preparing.

I'm researching.

I'm building.

I'm improving my DeFi strategy.

I'm thinking about what I want to accumulate.

And I'm making sure that if the market does give us another major opportunity, I'm still here to take advantage of it.


That's really what “survive first, compound second” means to me.

You don't have to catch the exact bottom.

You don't have to predict the exact top.

You don't have to win every trade.


You need a repeatable process that keeps you in the game long enough for knowledge, experience, capital, and patience to start compounding together.

Process over prediction.

That's the part I'm focused on now.


Resources

📢 Free Telegram Community:https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace

📈 LBank — Trading & Futures:https://lbank.com/ref/5IPGV

📊 BloFin — Futures & Active Trading:https://partner.blofin.com/d/DADSDeFiSpace


Affiliate Disclosure: Some links above are affiliate or referral links. If you choose to use them, they help support DADS DeFi Space at no additional cost to you. I only recommend platforms, tools, and resources that I personally use, research, or believe provide genuine value.


Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto, DeFi, liquidity providing, and leveraged trading involve risk, including loss of capital. Always do your own research and make decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance.

 
 
 

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