Bitcoin Is Weakening, But I Believe We're Entering the Final Phase of the Bear Market
- Kevin- DADS DeFi Space
- Jun 9
- 5 min read
A few days ago, I spent most of my day helping my mother move into her new home.
Between carrying boxes, sorting through old family photos, and moving furniture, I found myself reflecting on how much life can change in a year. Losing my father last summer was difficult on our entire family, and helping my mom through this transition reminded me that some things matter far more than charts and portfolios.
Of course, being a crypto investor, I still checked the market more than I probably should have. Partly because Bitcoin was approaching one of the most important technical levels in its history. Partly because our hedge positions had started doing exactly what they were designed to do. And partly because moments like this are where cycles begin to get interesting.
Not because I think the bottom is in.
But because I believe we're entering the later stages of this bear market.
As I sit here writing this, Bitcoin is sitting directly on top of a major support zone. Momentum remains weak. Volume has dried up compared to earlier capitulation events. Retail investors haven't returned yet, and buyers still haven't shown much conviction. But are the whales accumulating in the background?
Honestly, the chart still doesn't look great.
Could Bitcoin bounce from here?
Absolutely.
Could we see a relief rally back toward $69,000?
Sure.
Could we still make another lower low before this bear market is over?
I think that's entirely possible as well.
That's why my strategy hasn't changed.
I'm not trying to predict the exact bottom.
I'm trying to prepare for whatever comes next.
Bitcoin Is Sitting on Major Support
Over the last several days, Bitcoin has been working through what I believe is the final leg of Stage 2 of this bear market. The selloff has been significant, sentiment remains poor, and the market continues searching for a sustainable floor. Right now, Bitcoin is hovering near a major support zone around the low-$60,000 region.
Could support hold?
Absolutely.
Could we bounce from here?
Of course.
But one of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming they need to know exactly what happens next.
They become attached to predictions.
They become emotionally invested in being right.
Then when the market changes, they refuse to adapt.
That's not investing.
That's ego.
Instead of asking where the exact bottom is, I'm focused on understanding what would change my positioning. If Bitcoin begins reclaiming key levels and rebuilding strength, I'll become more constructive.
If support breaks and we head lower, I'll adjust.
The market doesn't pay us for predictions.
It pays us for execution.
Why The 200-Week Moving Average Matters
One of the biggest developments recently has been Bitcoin's interaction with the 200-Week Moving Average.
For newer investors, this may look like just another indicator.
For those of us who have survived multiple cycles, it's one of the most important long-term signals in crypto.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to revisit the 200-week moving average during the later stages of severe bear markets. It doesn't always mark the exact bottom, but it often signals that we're entering the final chapters of the cycle.
That's why I've been paying so much attention to this area.
Not because I believe lower prices are impossible.
In fact, I still believe Bitcoin could revisit levels between roughly $39,000 and $51,000 before this bear market is truly over.
But touching the 200-week moving average tells me something important.
We're getting closer to the end.
Much closer.
That's a very different statement than saying the bull market is back.
The bull market isn't back.
But I do believe we're beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
My Hedge Positions Are Doing Exactly What They Were Designed To Do
If you've been following our updates inside the Telegram group, you've seen some of our hedge positions perform extremely well.
The HYPE short moved over 700% in profit.
The VVV short climbed nearly 300%.
We took profits on both positions.
Now here's the important lesson.
These positions were never intended to be lottery tickets.
They're tools.
Their purpose is to offset weakness elsewhere in the portfolio and generate capital that can eventually be redeployed into higher-conviction opportunities.
As profits continue coming in, my plan is simple.
Some of that capital will move into spot Bitcoin.
Some may move into Ethereum.
Some will be allocated toward select DeFi opportunities and MaxFi positions that I'm currently monitoring.
The objective isn't to stay short forever.
The objective is to use every phase of the market to strengthen the portfolio.
Ethereum Still Looks Weak
Unfortunately, Ethereum isn't giving us a dramatically different picture.
The chart remains weak.
Structure remains weak.
Momentum remains weak.
As my father used to say:
"It is what it is."
Ethereum continues hovering near major support levels, and until buyers begin showing stronger conviction, I remain cautious.
term, I remain bullish.
Short term, I remain patient.
Those two things can coexist.
The Goal Isn't To Catch The Bottom
As I finish writing this article, I'll probably spend the rest of the evening helping move another piece of furniture, checking on my mom, and maybe glancing at Bitcoin a few more times than I should.
But my focus remains unchanged.
The goal isn't to catch the exact bottom.
The goal isn't to make the perfect prediction.
The goal is to survive long enough to participate in the next cycle.
That's why we're protecting capital.
That's why we're taking profits.
That's why we're managing risk.
That's why we're slowly beginning to identify the assets we may want to accumulate once the market finally turns.
Nobody knows exactly what happens next.
The investors who survive aren't the ones who call the perfect bottom.
They're the ones who remain flexible, protect their capital, and continue showing up when everyone else gives up.
That's the process.
And as always:
Process over prediction. Risk management over hope.
Join the DADS DEFI SPACE
If you want more breakdowns like this, join me at DADS DeFi Space.
I share practical crypto and DeFi education focused on market structure, portfolio construction, risk management, and execution—not hype.
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Remember:
Survive first.
Compound second.
Process over prediction.
DISCLAIMER:
This article and video is for educational and informational purposes only. This is not financial, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to use any protocol, vault, token, or strategy. DeFi can be risky and may involve smart contract risk, impermanent loss, market volatility, liquidity issues, execution risk, and total loss of capital. I am sharing my own process, mistakes, and strategy adjustments so you can think more clearly, not so you can copy my positions. Always do your own research and manage your own risk.
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