Crypto Bull Run Over: Portfolio Moves for Dads in DeFi

The crypto bull run that many expected to continue into the end of 2025 has lost momentum. Several factors contributed to this shift, signaling a change from rapid growth to a more cautious market phase. We never subscribed to the "supercycle theory." For now, I'm better off farming and creating over on Base (be sure to follow us, links below), Tao Subnet staking, and consolidating plays into a core portfolio. The bull run could be ending right this moment, or are we just forming a base around the 100-week moving average?

Key Momentum Indicators Showing Weakness

Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have shown declining strength. The RSI has dropped below key thresholds, indicating selling pressure. MACD lines have crossed bearish, confirming downward momentum. These signals suggest that buyers are stepping back, and sellers are gaining control.

Weekly MA Structure and Trend Confirmation

Weekly moving averages (MAs) provide a clearer picture of trend direction. The 50-week MA has crossed below the 100-week MA, a classic sign of a weakening trend. The 200-week MA, often a long-term support, is being tested. If prices fail to hold above this level, it could confirm a sustained bear phase.

Macro Environment: From Euphoria to Capital Preservation

The broader economic environment has shifted from risk-taking to risk management. This change affects crypto markets, especially DeFi, where liquidity and investor confidence are vital.

Liquidity Drain and Volume Imbalance

Liquidity in crypto markets has decreased as investors withdraw funds to safeguard capital. Trading volumes have dropped, leading to less price stability and higher volatility. This imbalance makes it harder for large trades to execute without impacting prices significantly.

Risk-Off Behavior Across Majors and Altcoins

Investors are favoring safer assets, moving away from speculative altcoins and even some major cryptocurrencies. This risk-off sentiment means capital flows are shrinking in DeFi projects, which rely on active participation and liquidity.

BTC Technical Breakdown and Strategic Read

Bitcoin remains the market bellwether. Its technical condition often sets the tone for the entire crypto space.

Weekly Chart Structure at the 50W, 100W, and 200W

Bitcoin’s price action around the 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week moving averages is critical. Currently, BTC is hovering near the 200-week MA, a historically strong support zone. A break below this could trigger further declines, while a bounce might signal a base for recovery.

Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

Key support levels lie around $78,000 to $79,000. Resistance is seen near $94,000 to $95,000. These zones will determine BTC’s short-term direction and influence DeFi market sentiment.

Portfolio Moves for Dads in the DeFi Space