I Ignored This Signal in 2021… How to Spot the Bitcoin Top Before It’s Too Late 🚨

Sep 28

5 min read

Has Bitcoin already topped or is the blowoff top still ahead? Learn the exact signal I ignored in 2021 and how to spot the Bitcoin top before it’s too late.

I Ignored This Signal in 2021… How to Spot the Bitcoin Top Before It’s Too Late 🚨

The crypto market is full of noise, hype, and bold predictions. But in the end, cycles repeat, patterns emerge, and history leaves clues. Back in 2021, I ignored a signal that could have saved me and many others from holding bags deep into the bear market. Today, I’m going to break down that exact mistake and show you how to recognize it before this cycle ends.

Whether Bitcoin has already topped — or whether the real blowoff top is still ahead — the key is knowing what signals truly matter. Let’s dive in.

Real Talk: Portfolio, Wins, and Lessons

I’ve been through multiple bull and bear cycles. Each time, I’ve learned something new about risk management, conviction, and timing. While wins feel great, it’s the losses — the “crypto tuition” — that teach the most valuable lessons.

Has Bitcoin Already Topped or Is the Blowoff Top Still Ahead?

The burning question on everyone’s mind: has Bitcoin already topped, or is there one more explosive leg higher?

What Flips This Bull Market Bearish

Right now, we’re still in a bull market. But a single breakdown in structure could flip this bullish script into a bearish one instantly.

Quick Look: Bitcoin at $111,000

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $111,000, holding above the bull market support band. That’s bullish, but not without warning signs.

Daily vs Weekly Chart Analysis

On the daily chart, BTC looks strong. But the weekly chart tells a different story — wicks below the bull market support band are flashing caution.

Breaking Below the Bull Market Support Band

Historically, a weekly close below this band has often signaled the beginning of market weakness.

Why the 50-Week EMA Is Critical

If Bitcoin breaks and fails to reclaim the 50-week moving average (EMA), history shows the bull market is likely over. In 2021, this exact signal preceded the drop to $15,000.

Lessons from the 2021 Crash

The Signal I Ignored in 2021

Back in 2021, I saw analysts warning about the bull market support band and 50-week MA. I ignored it, thinking the bounce was inevitable.

How It Cost Me in DeFi Positions

That mistake cost me not just in Bitcoin but in my DeFi positions. Holding too long meant watching major gains evaporate.

“Crypto Tuition” – Lessons That Stick

The tuition I paid in 2021 taught me more than any win ever has: trust the signals, not the hype.

Is the Blowoff Top Still Ahead?

Halving Cycles and Historical Patterns

Every past cycle has peaked 12–18 months after the Bitcoin halving. With the April 2024 halving behind us, history suggests the top may still be ahead.

Why Q4 2025 Could Be Key

If history rhymes, the final blowoff top could land in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026.

Bitcoin Dominance and Market Rotation

Bitcoin Dominance Breakdown

Bitcoin dominance broke out earlier this year, then sharply dropped to around 57%.

Risk-Off vs Altcoin Season

If dominance drops further, altcoins may explode in a final altcoin season before the cycle ends.

Total3 Market Cap and Altcoin Signals

Key Support and Resistance Levels

The Total3 chart (altcoin market cap excluding BTC & ETH) must reclaim $1.116 trillion for a confirmed uptrend. Otherwise, support sits around $976B–$934B.

What Would Spark a True Altcoin Season

A strong daily close above $1.08 trillion could reignite bullish altcoin momentum.

Sentiment, Fear & ETF Outflows

Fear and Greed Index at 34

Fear has returned. The index sits at 34, suggesting market hesitation.

$674M ETF Outflows: What It Means

Heavy ETF outflows signal institutional caution, which historically aligns with mid-cycle pullbacks.

The 3 Signals That the Bull Market Is Over

Weekly close below the bull market support band
Weekly close below the 50-week moving average
Losing the 200-week MA (final confirmation of a bear market)

My 2021 Mistake and How I Trade Now

Structure, Sentiment, and Timing

Today, I follow structure and sentiment, not hype. Timing is everything, and I no longer ignore key signals.

Sharing My Real-Time Moves

That’s why I share every trade, win, and mistake transparently here at Dad’s DeFi Space.

Join Our DeFi Community

Join the conversation:

Free Telegram Group
DadsDefiSpace.org
Non-KYC exchanges and tools I use daily

Aster vs Hyperliquid: Fresh Alpha

Two emerging competitors are challenging Hyperliquid. I’ll be releasing a deep-dive video on Aster soon — stay tuned.

Final Thoughts & Takeaways

Cycles repeat, but investors don’t always learn. By recognizing these 3 signals, you’ll be better prepared to spot the Bitcoin top before it’s too late.

FAQs

1. How can I spot the Bitcoin top before it happens?Watch the 50-week MA and bull market support band. Losing them on high volume often signals the end.

2. Has Bitcoin already topped in 2025?Not necessarily. Based on halving cycles, the blowoff top may still be ahead in late 2025 or early 2026.

3. What is the bull market support band?It’s a moving average range that historically signals when BTC is trending bullish vs bearish.

4. Why is Bitcoin dominance important?It shows when capital rotates between BTC and altcoins, often hinting at altcoin season.

5. What is Total3 and why does it matter?Total3 tracks all altcoins except BTC and ETH. It’s the best measure of true altcoin strength.

6. What’s the biggest mistake traders make at the top?Ignoring signals, believing the hype, and holding too long. I made that mistake in 2021 — and won’t again.

Conclusion

I ignored the Bitcoin top signal in 2021 — and it cost me. Don’t make the same mistake. By focusing on the bull market support band, 50-week MA, and sentiment shifts, you can spot the cycle peak before it’s too late.

Stay smart, stay disciplined, and don’t forget: in crypto, survival is winning.

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DISCLAIMER: The information contained herein is for entertainment and informational purposes only and not to be construed as financial, legal or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies and defi poses considerable risk of capital loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome. © 2025 DAD DEFI SPACE

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