🧨 Risk AssesDistribution → Breakdown → Relief → Grind Lower

Let’s zoom out.

Strip away narratives.Strip away headlines.Strip away the panic.

What does structure actually say?

Right now, across majors and mid-caps, the answer is consistent:

This is not bull market structure.

This is late-cycle behavior.

🔴 Trend Bias (Overall Market)

Bitcoin: Bearish below 100W MAEthereum: Lost 200W MASolana: Lower highs + lost major weekly levelsMid/Low Caps (TAO, AERO, ZORA): Confirmed distribution → capitulation phase

This is the classic sequence:

And that’s exactly what we’re seeing.

🟠 BITCOIN (BTCUSD)

Current Zone: ~$64K

Major Macro Levels:

• 100W MA: ~87K

• 200W MA: ~58K

• Bull Market Line (BML 1): ~51K

What I See

• Massive breakdown from the 90K region

• Violent liquidation cascade into low 60s

• Now trapped between:

  • Lost 100W MA (~87K)

  • 200W MA (~58K)

This is macro decision territory.

Structural Interpretation

If $58K (200W MA) fails on a weekly close:

→ $51K becomes magnet→ Full bear structure confirmed

If $58K holds:

→ Expect 58K–75K range chop→ Months of volatility compression

Volume spike during the selloff confirms:

This was not retail selling.

This was forced liquidation.

Now we’re asking:

Is this the bear market low?Or just leg one of a deeper correction?

🔵 ETHEREUM (ETHUSD)

Current: ~$1,860

Lost:

• 200W MA (~2,435)

• 100W MA (~3,030)

That is significant.

Historically, ETH below the 200W MA signals deep bear conditions.

Key Support

• 1,800–1,750 zone

• 1,500 next major structural level

Structure remains:

Lower highs.Lower lows.

Until ETH reclaims 2,400–2,500, every rally is a relief bounce.

🟡 SOLANA (SOLUSD)

Current: ~$77

Lost:

• 100W MA

• 50W MA

• Major 117 weekly support

Major supports now:

• 77 (current)

• 60

• 50 zone

This chart is a textbook downtrend channel.

If BTC rolls again?

SOL likely tags 60.

🟣 TAO (Bittensor)

Current: ~$166

Structure:

• Clear lower highs

• Heavy rejection at 260–300

• Distribution pattern complete

Support:

• 145

• 120

This chart reads:

“Smart money exited the pump.”

If BTC weakens further, 120–140 becomes realistic.

🟢 AERO (Aerodrome)

Current: ~$0.30

Structure:

Death by 1,000 cuts.

Lower-high staircase pattern.

Support:

• 0.28–0.27

• 0.20 on breakdown

This is not accumulation.

This is bleed-out.

Needs a weekly reclaim of 0.47 to shift macro structure.

🟠 ZORA

Current: ~$0.019

Deep capitulation territory.

Range bottom near ~0.014.

Low caps like this behave two ways:

1. Slow bleed into irrelevance

2. Violent 100% pump on thin liquidity

This is lottery-ticket zone.

Tiny sizing only.

📊 MARKET CONCLUSION

Current Phase:

Late-cycle correction transitioning toward early bear structure.

Bear Market Confirmation Requires:

• BTC weekly close below 58K

• ETH loss of 1,750

• SOL breakdown below 60

Stabilization Requires:

• BTC reclaim of 75K

• ETH reclaim of 2,400

• SOL hold above 70

Until then?

High-volatility distribution zone.

💰 CAPITAL PRESERVATION STRATEGY

This is where most traders blow up.

Not in bull markets.In corrective volatility.

If managing capital conservatively:

1️⃣ Increase Stablecoin Allocation

40–60% cash if swing trading.

2️⃣ Only Buy Major Weekly Supports

After bullish weekly closes.

Not mid-downtrend.

3️⃣ Avoid Low Caps Unless:

• Tiny position sizing

• Clear invalidation

• Defined stop

No guessing.

sment Table

🧾Findings

• Market in corrective/bearish structure

• BTC testing macro 200W support

• ETH below 200W = structural warning

• Alts in confirmed downtrends

• No confirmed reversal structures

• Relief rallies likely, but trend remains down

This is a defensive positioning environment.

Not prediction mode.

Not moon mode.

Not hero mode.

Process over emotion.

Structure over narrative.